November 9, 2026 Weekly Logistics Recap

What changed in global logistics and e-commerce

Europe’s low-value import regime moved from an anticipated cost increase to measurable volume change. WorldACD reported that October air tonnage from mainland China to Europe fell 8% year over year and Hong Kong–Europe tonnage fell 32%. The combined China/Hong Kong decline was 17%. China’s commerce ministry objected publicly on November 5, four days after the €2 handling fee took effect. Reuters

This does not mean European e-commerce demand has collapsed. It means the logistics architecture is changing. Platforms are increasing consolidated B2B entry, ocean transport, regional inventory and local fulfillment instead of flying every low-value order as an individual parcel. Customs, product data, seller control and inventory placement now determine the cost and speed of the model.

The United States shows the opposite lane signal. China and Hong Kong–U.S. air tonnage increased 8% year over year in October. In week 44, Asia Pacific–U.S. volume rose roughly 10%, led by Taiwan, Thailand, South Korea and Japan. Spot rates reached $7.67/kg, and South Korea and Japan exceeded $8/kg. WorldACD

Technology demand is central. Expeditors said AI hyperscalers and high-value technology customers supported record air tonnage and growth in road freight, warehousing and distribution. DHL cited time-critical industrial shipments and data-center logistics. Air France-KLM’s cargo revenue rose 21.9%. Maersk said AI infrastructure, electrification and energy investment were generating industrial flows.

This is a different airfreight peak from the pandemic-era e-commerce boom. The tightest capacity is linked to semiconductors, servers, industrial equipment, cosmetics and other high-value cargo. Low-value parcels still matter, but their regulatory and modal economics are diverging sharply by destination.

Ocean shipping also supplied a scarcity signal. Maersk reported third-quarter revenue of $18.1 billion, EBITDA of $4.7 billion and EBIT of $3.3 billion. Ocean EBITDA doubled, yet loaded volume declined 0.8%. Vessel utilization remained 96%, and port congestion absorbed capacity. Maersk raised full-year underlying EBITDA guidance to 14.0–14.5 billion. Maersk

The result is important because it separates demand from scarcity. Container trade grew, but weather, congestion and geopolitical disruption drove a larger part of the earnings improvement than loaded volume. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd are now restoring selected Gemini services through Suez. Shorter voyages should ultimately release effective vessel and container capacity, lower fuel consumption and reduce scheduled transit time. Initially, however, changed rotations can bunch vessel arrivals and destabilize equipment flows. Shippers should expect a transition, not an immediate return to normal.

What the week’s earnings revealed

Expeditors produced the cleanest operating-leverage result. Revenue rose 42% to $4.1 billion, operating income 55% to $445 million and EPS 62% to $2.65. Airfreight tonnage increased 13%, ocean containers 7%, and headcount only 1%. Operating efficiency reached 36.7%. Expeditors

This was not merely a rate story. Management cited strong customer demand, technology accounts, new customs business and broader supply-chain wins. The result sets a productivity benchmark for asset-light forwarders: growth that materially outruns headcount.

DHL’s portfolio confirmed the same high-value trend. Revenue rose 12.6% to €22.7 billion and EBIT 16.2% to €1.72 billion. Express benefited from heavier time-critical industrial shipments and better network utilization; Global Forwarding and Supply Chain also improved. Domestic Post & Parcel Germany was weaker, and quarterly free cash flow declined. DHL

Shopify showed that broad e-commerce remains healthy. GMV reached $119.1 billion, revenue rose 32%, and free cash flow was $816 million—a 22% margin. Wayfair delivered 12.2% more orders and increased U.S. revenue 11.4%. The average Wayfair order value declined, but customer and order growth produced positive operating income and free cash flow.

The implication is subtle but important: softer China–Europe air parcels do not equal weaker global online commerce. Consumers and merchants are still buying; the sourcing, basket, inventory and fulfillment model is changing.

GXO delivered strong commercial momentum but a weaker conversion signal. Organic growth reached 6.4%, new wins rose 34%, and the pipeline expanded to $3.1 billion. Adjusted EBITDA was unchanged, however, and quarterly free cash flow fell to $85 million. Investor Day on November 16 must show how labor-management systems, automation and robotics turn wins into margin.

ArcBest supplied another reminder to normalize transportation KPIs. Asset-Based tonnage per day increased 9.6%, but shipments per day declined 3%. The difference was a 13% increase in weight per shipment. Revenue per shipment rose 14.2%, while revenue per hundredweight declined in the low single digits excluding fuel. Contract renewals averaged 5.1%.

The LTL market remains rational, but headline tonnage and revenue per shipment overstate the breadth of demand.

Special Focus: AI infrastructure becomes a logistics vertical

AI has largely appeared in transportation discussions as a productivity tool: better forecasting, pricing, routing and warehouse labor management. The latest results show the other side of the equation. AI infrastructure is becoming a physical logistics vertical.

Servers, accelerators, networking equipment, cooling systems, batteries and data-center components are high-value, time-sensitive and globally sourced. They often require airfreight, secure handling, customs expertise, controlled warehousing, white-glove delivery and project coordination. Their supply chains extend from semiconductor and electronics origins in Taiwan, South Korea, Japan, China and Southeast Asia to data-center construction in North America, Europe and the Gulf.

Expeditors explicitly identified hyperscalers and technology customers as Q3 growth drivers. DHL is investing in data-center logistics in North America and Asia Pacific. Maersk cited AI infrastructure as a driver of industrial cargo. GXO said technology was among the verticals generating a large share of new wins. Air rates from Taiwan, South Korea and Japan to the United States rose sharply into peak.

The opportunity is attractive because the cargo values reliability more than the lowest price. The risk is concentration and cyclicality. Data-center programs can create large, lumpy flows, and specialized handling raises the cost of a service failure. Logistics providers should disclose customer concentration, committed capacity, claims experience and return on specialized infrastructure.

For investors, the relevant question is not whether AI spending is large. It is which operators can capture the physical movement without adding disproportionate labor, purchased capacity or working capital.

What investors and operators should watch next

Hapag-Lloyd reports nine-month results on November 12. The company has already raised 2026 EBITDA guidance to 3.9–4.4 billion. Investors should compare its average freight rate, volume and congestion exposure with Maersk and assess how Suez restoration affects the proposed ZIM combination.

Cargojet reports November 11 after market. Its domestic network, ACMI block hours, fleet utilization and fuel recovery will show whether tight premium-air markets are converting into earnings.

Nippon Express reports November 11. Its Asia forwarding volumes and Metro Supply Chain integration provide a bridge between high-value air demand and North American contract logistics.

On following Monday, November 16, GXO holds Investor Day. The company needs to connect its $3.1 billion pipeline to multi-year growth, EBITDA margin and free-cash-flow conversion.

Operators should also watch transpacific spot rates through Diwali and pre-Black-Friday demand, plus the first consumer and seller response to Europe’s November 1 fee.