October 26, 2026 Weekly Logistics Recap

What changed in global logistics and e-commerce

Parcel pricing has become the most immediate cost shock for U.S. retailers. A Monday market check found average U.S. diesel at $6.28 per gallon on October 19. At that price, UPS and FedEx fuel-surcharge tables imply charges of roughly 29.5% and 29%. The TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index projects fourth-quarter ground parcel pricing up 5.8% year over year and express pricing up 13.8%. USPS is charging an 8% fuel surcharge on most packages, while Amazon introduced a 3.5% fuel and logistics charge. Reuters.

The confirmed facts point to two conclusions. First, fuel recovery is helping carriers defend revenue even before base-rate negotiations fully reset. Second, surcharge inflation is broadening the addressable market for regional delivery networks, postal consolidators and Amazon Shipping. That does not mean large shippers can switch networks immediately: peak routing guides, technology connections and volume discounts were negotiated months ago. But it raises the probability of a more diversified 2027 parcel market.

Cross-border compliance remains a structural operating cost. The U.S. suspension of the de minimis exemption remains in force across modes, while the mandatory compliance date for a new international-mail entry process has moved to January 20, 2027. CBP guidance. The delay provides time; it does not reduce the need for item-level classification, origin, value and consignee data. Marketplaces, consolidators and express carriers with cleaner data should retain a service advantage.

In ocean shipping, the transition toward Suez is becoming more concrete. Maersk’s October 19 network update refined the ME2 and AE12 rotations as the Gemini network progressively restores trans-Suez services; the first AE12 westbound sailing in the revised rotation is due from Tanjung Pelepas on October 27. Maersk update. Kuehne+Nagel CEO Stefan Paul said most container lines could be back via Suez by late first quarter or early second quarter 2027, subject to geopolitics. Reuters interview.

Our analysis: a sustained Suez return is principally a 2027 effective-capacity event. Shorter voyages release ships and containers, reduce fuel burn and compress transit times. That should pressure ocean rates, but the transition may temporarily reduce schedule reliability as carriers revise rotations and equipment flows. Shippers negotiating 2027 contracts should avoid treating Cape-era transit times and rates as permanent.

What the prior week’s earnings and investor updates revealed

The clearest evidence of demand strength came from freight forwarding. DSV reported third-quarter revenue of DKK80.7 billion, gross profit of DKK20.3 billion and EBIT before special items of DKK6.61 billion, up 19.5%. Air & Sea EBIT rose 18.9%, and Contract Logistics EBIT rose 50.3%. But Road EBIT fell 35.1% after Schenker integration issues reduced service reliability and productivity. DSV narrowed full-year EBIT guidance to DKK24–25 billion and maintained its DKK9 billion annual synergy target. DSV release.

Kuehne+Nagel delivered a cleaner operating beat. Net turnover rose 22% to CHF7.4 billion; EBIT rose 53% to CHF435 million; and earnings rose 53% to CHF316 million. Airfreight volume increased 10%, driven by cloud-infrastructure and semiconductor demand, while sea volume increased 5% on Asia-outbound and transatlantic market-share gains. Management raised recurring-EBIT guidance to CHF1.5–1.6 billion. Kuehne+Nagel release.

The contrast matters. DSV is capturing merger economics but still repairing one network. Kuehne+Nagel is monetizing specialized verticals without a comparable integration burden. The read-through is favorable for high-value airfreight and customs services, but it also shows that scale does not automatically produce service reliability.

In U.S. trucking, Knight-Swift reported revenue of $2.20 billion, adjusted EPS of $0.83 and a truckload adjusted operating ratio of 89.2%, a 700-basis-point improvement. The company achieved that improvement while average tractors declined 4%, indicating pricing and network efficiency—not fleet expansion—drove earnings. SEC-filed release.

The rails confirmed stronger demand but also exposed the distorting effect of fuel. CSX grew total volume 5% and intermodal 7%, with revenue of $4.02 billion and operating margin of 39.1%. CSX release. Union Pacific grew carloads 6% and adjusted EPS 15%, but higher fuel worsened its operating ratio by 140 basis points. Union Pacific release. Norfolk Southern grew volume 3% and revenue 14%; however, adjusted operating ratio deteriorated 210 basis points to 65.4%, and fuel surcharges supplied eight percentage points of revenue growth. Norfolk Southern release.

Airlines provide a useful air-cargo capacity read-through. American Airlines generated record third-quarter revenue of $16.3 billion but reported a $269 million net loss as fuel expense increased $1.9 billion. American Airlines release. Meanwhile, WorldACD reported global air-cargo tonnage 9% above the prior year in week 41, with average rates holding steady despite sequential softness around Asian holidays. WorldACD. More belly capacity does not necessarily mean lower freight rates when jet fuel resets the cost floor.

Special Focus: Fuel is now a strategic pricing variable

Fuel surcharges have traditionally been treated as a mechanical pass-through. In the current environment, that framing is too narrow. Fuel is influencing reported revenue, carrier selection, modal economics and customer behavior at the same time.

For investors, revenue growth that is mostly fuel does not carry the same quality as base-rate or volume growth. Norfolk Southern’s result is the sharpest example: revenue increased 14%, but eight points came from fuel surcharge, while adjusted operating ratio deteriorated. Union Pacific’s 6% freight-revenue growth excluding fuel is more informative than its 15% reported-revenue growth. The same discipline should be applied to parcel revenue per piece, LTL revenue per hundredweight and airfreight yield.

For operators, the surcharge formula matters as much as the price index. A carrier can recover more than the contemporaneous change in diesel if its table includes wider bands, lags or higher multipliers. Shippers therefore need parcel-level cost models that distinguish base transportation, fuel, demand surcharges and accessorials. Without that separation, procurement teams may believe they negotiated base-rate savings while total landed cost rises.

Fuel also changes competitive boundaries. Regional parcel carriers can win share on headline price, but they are not immune to surcharge inflation. Rail can gain from truck diversion, but railroads also carry fuel timing risk. Passenger airlines may add belly capacity, yet higher fuel keeps air-cargo pricing firm. In other words, fuel is not merely a cost to pass through—it is a determinant of network choice and margin quality.

What investors and operators should watch next

The coming week provides an unusually complete sector test. UPS reports Tuesday. On Wednesday, C.H. Robinson, Old Dominion, CPKC, FedEx and eBay report. Thursday brings XPO, Saia, Amazon and the first stand-alone FedEx Freight transition-period update. TFI International and Canadian National follow Friday.

• UPS: U.S. Domestic volume, base revenue per piece, margin, Amazon glide-down and surcharge elasticity.

• FedEx and FedEx Freight: post-separation cost allocation, Network 2.0 savings, parcel density, LTL daily shipments and yield.

• LTL carriers: tonnage, weight per shipment, yield excluding fuel, claims and incremental margins.

• C.H. Robinson: whether Lean AI productivity and market-share gains offset firmer purchased transportation.

• Amazon and eBay: marketplace GMV, fulfillment cost per unit, cross-border mix and the economics of expanding logistics services.

• CPKC and CN: intermodal, grain, cross-border density and fuel-adjusted operating ratio.